300 
 WTPA41 PHFO 311501
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP092015
 500 AM HST THU DEC 31 2015
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-C...THE SIXTEENTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF
 2015 IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MANY
 CHALLENGES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY PROBLEM REMAINS THE
 LOCATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF THE
 DEPRESSION. NIGHTTIME INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THE HIMAWARI
 SATELLITE HAS BEEN USEFUL IN MONITORING THE SHORT-TERM CHANGES IN
 THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE APPARENT LLCC.
 HOWEVER...EVEN WITH 10-MINUTE INTERVAL HIGH-RESOLUTION SATELLITE
 IMAGERY...THE CIRRUS CANOPY OVER THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO OBSCURE
 MOST OF THE LOWER-LEVEL CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT
 MIGHT HELP US TO LOCATE THE LLCC. ONCE AGAIN...ALL OF THE SATELLITE
 FIX AGENCIES...PHFO...SAB AND JTWC...PROVIDED POSITION FIXES THAT
 ARE IN RELATIVELY CLOSE PROXIMITY. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE
 DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC
 AND SAB...WHILE THE PHFO VALUE IS 2.5/35 KT. THE LATEST CIMSS ADT
 ESTIMATE IS 2.9/43 KT. THE ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN
 THE VICINITY OF NINE-C ACCORDING TO SHIPS IS 23 KT FROM 110 DEGREES.
 DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LLCC IN A HIGHLY
 SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WE WILL MAINTAIN THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS AN UNCERTAIN
 300/02 KT. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FORECAST TRACK GUIDANCE
 FOR NINE-C REMAINS UNRELIABLE...IF IT IS AVAILABLE. SINCE THE GFDL
 AND HWRF GUIDANCE MOVE NINE-C IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS AND THERE IS NO 
 ECMWF FORECAST AVAILABLE...THE CONSENSUS MODELS WE NORMALLY RELY ON ARE 
 AMBIGUOUS. NOTE ALSO THAT GFDL AND HWRF DISSIPATE NINE-C IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. 
 THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECAST IS AVAILABLE...SO WE USED THAT TO MODIFY 
 THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK REMAINS 
 CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS...BUT THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN 
 DECREASED. 
  
 NEAR EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 30 DEGREES C...AS
 WELL AS HIGH VALUES OF OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AS DEPICTED ON THE CIRA
 WEB SITE...APPEAR TO BE MAJOR FACTORS THAT MIGHT ULTIMATELY KEEP
 NINE-C ALIVE. HOWEVER...THE LATEST FORECAST AGAIN INDICATES THE
 SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY...IF AT ALL...DUE TO THE STRONG EASTERLY
 SHEAR IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ACCORDING TO THE LATEST SHIPS
 GUIDANCE. IF NINE-C AVOIDS DISSIPATION...IT IS FORECAST TO REACH
 TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BY DAY 4 AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL
 DATE LINE. NOTE ALSO THAT THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO DELAY THE
 POTENTIAL CROSSING OF NINE-C INTO THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UNTIL AROUND
 DAY 5.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  31/1500Z  2.4N 176.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  01/0000Z  2.5N 176.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  01/1200Z  2.7N 176.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  02/0000Z  2.9N 177.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  02/1200Z  3.1N 177.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  03/1200Z  3.5N 178.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  04/1200Z  3.9N 179.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  05/1200Z  4.3N 180.0E   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER HOUSTON