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 347 
 WTNT44 KNHC 182032
 TCDAT4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
 500 PM AST FRI SEP 18 2015
 
 Deep convection has redeveloped north of the center of the
 depression this afternoon, buying the system some more time as a
 tropical cyclone. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on the
 latest Dvorak estimates. Given the unfavorable environment of shear
 and dry air, the system is still expected to become a remnant low in
 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the weakening low is expected to
 open up into a trough as shown by the latest GFS and ECMWF
 forecasts.
 
 The motion of the low-level center has been a little erratic during
 the past few hours, but a long-term average yields a motion of
 300/05. A general west-northwestward motion driven by the
 low-level ridge to the north is forecast until dissipation, in
 agreement with the GFS model. The new NHC track is similar to the
 previous one adjusted for the initial position and motion.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/2100Z 18.0N  47.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  19/0600Z 18.4N  48.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  19/1800Z 19.0N  50.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  20/0600Z 19.6N  51.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  20/1800Z 20.2N  53.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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