058 
 WTNT44 KNHC 181433
 TCDAT4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 18 2015
 
 After the burst of convection overnight, shear and dry air appear
 to be getting the best of the depression, with no deep convection
 remaining near the low-level center. If deep convection does not
 return, the depression could be declared a remnant low by tonight.
 Weakening is forecast as the depression and its remnant low
 gradually spin down and dissipate in 3 to 4 days.
 
 Visible imagery shows the low-level center has been moving toward
 the west-northwest with an initial motion estimate of 295/7. The
 initial position and motion have resulted in a leftward shift of the
 NHC track forecast this cycle of about a degree. The NHC forecast
 shows the shallow cyclone moving generally west-northwestward
 through dissipation as it is steered by the low-level ridge to the
 north. The official forecast continues to favor the weaker models,
 such as the GFS and the GEFS ensemble mean, on the left side of the
 guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  18/1500Z 17.7N  47.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  19/0000Z 18.2N  48.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  19/1200Z 18.9N  49.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  20/0000Z 19.6N  51.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  20/1200Z 20.4N  52.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  21/1200Z 21.5N  55.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan