724 
 WTNT44 KNHC 170233
 TCDAT4
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092015
 1100 PM AST WED SEP 16 2015
 
 The depression continues to be sheared with the low-level center
 well removed from the deep convection. Dvorak T-numbers from all
 agencies have decreased tonight, but still support an initial
 intensity of 25 kt. Most of the global models bring even stronger
 upper-level westerly winds over the cyclone, and this should result
 in weakening.  The depression could still produce intermittent
 bursts of convection near the center during the next day or so, but
 the overall trend is for the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low in
 two days or earlier.
 
 The low-level center is difficult to locate on infrared images. The
 best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
 310 degrees at 6 kt, while embedded within light steering currents.
 Since the depression is becoming a shallow cyclone, it will likely
 be steered toward the northwest and then west-northwest by the
 low-level flow around the subtropical ridge. The NHC forecast is
 very similar to the previous one, and is on the southern edge of the
 guidance envelope, leaning toward BAM shallow.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/0300Z 15.8N  45.1W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  17/1200Z 16.6N  45.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
  24H  18/0000Z 17.6N  45.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  18/1200Z 18.8N  46.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  19/0000Z 19.8N  47.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  20/0000Z 21.0N  50.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  21/0000Z 22.0N  52.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila