929 
 WTNT45 KNHC 150834
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
 500 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016
 
 The cloud pattern has not changed much since the last advisory.
 Patches of deep convection keep reforming near and to the north of
 the center. The circulation appears to be elongated, but it is still
 well defined. Initial intensity is kept at 60 kt.
 
 As mentioned by my predecessor, the future structure of Nicole is
 difficult to forecast. Given the strong shear and cold SSTs, one
 should tend to foreast weakening or extratropical transition.
 However, both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated infrared imagery
 continue to forecast the development of an eye feature in a day or
 so. Given these model solutions, the NHC forecast keeps Nicole with
 tropical characteristics during the next 3 days and calls for the
 cyclone to become post-tropical thereafter.
 
 After an increased in forward speed last evening, Nicole has slowed
 down a little, and is now moving toward the east-northeast at about
 15 kt. The cyclone is already embedded within a mid-latitude trough
 and will continue to move with the trough on the same general track
 with a decrease in forward speed for the next 2 to 3 days. After
 that time, another trough will approach Nicole and will probably
 kick the cyclone toward the north-northeast. The NHC forecast is in
 the middle of the guidance envelope and is not different from the
 previous one.
 
 Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the
 forecast wind radii.
 
 Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east
 coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days.  By early
 next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole
 will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0900Z 38.1N  51.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 38.7N  50.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 38.8N  48.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  16/1800Z 39.0N  47.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  48H  17/0600Z 39.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  18/0600Z 44.0N  42.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  19/0600Z 54.5N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  20/0600Z 62.5N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila