592 
 WTNT45 KNHC 131455
 TCDAT5
 
 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
 1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016
 
 Southwesterly shear is beginning to affect Nicole.  Microwave
 imagery and Bermuda radar indicate that the eye has lost some
 definition and become open to the south.  There is also a
 significant southwest to northeast tilt between the low-level
 center as noted between the radar and satellite presentations
 of the eye, and the Air Force center fix that was located near the
 extreme western part of the eye seen in satellite imagery.  The Air
 Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not yet sampled the
 eastern portion of the eyewall where the strongest winds were
 reported overnight, however, they have reported a minimum pressure
 961 mb, which is up several millibars since the previous fix.  Based
 on the most recent aircraft data and satellite intensity estimates,
 the initial wind speed has been set at 105 kt for this advisory.
 Although the area of strongest winds in the eastern eyewall are
 expected to remain offshore of Bermuda, sustained hurricane-force
 winds have been reported on the island during the past couple of
 hours. The official observing site at the airport has measured
 sustained winds of 67 kt with a gust to 90 kt within the past hour.
 
 Increasingly southwesterly shear and slightly lower sea surface
 temperatures along the forecast track of Nicole should cause a
 gradual decrease in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours.
 After that time, baroclinic forcing is forecast by the global
 models to keep Nicole an intense low pressure area over the
 north Atlantic through early next week.  The days 3-5 intensity
 forecast is in agreement with guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean
 Prediction Center.
 
 Nicole has turned northeastward as expected.  The hurricane will
 move northeastward with some acceleration in forward speed as it
 becomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude
 trough.  The trough is forecast to bypass Nicole in a couple of
 days, which is expected to cause the cyclone to slow down and
 meander well southeast of Newfoundland late in the forecast period.
 The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC is
 again near the multi-model consensus.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/1500Z 32.3N  64.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
  12H  14/0000Z 33.8N  62.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  14/1200Z 35.5N  58.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  15/0000Z 37.0N  54.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  15/1200Z 38.3N  51.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  72H  16/1200Z 39.0N  48.7W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  17/1200Z 39.0N  47.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  18/1200Z 41.0N  44.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown