319 
 WTNT45 KNHC 120836
 TCDAT5
 
 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
 500 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016
 
 Nicole's cloud pattern on satellite continues to be very impressive
 with a large eye surrounded by deep convection and a good upper-
 level outflow in all quadrants. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB remain
 4.5/77 kt, but objective numbers from UW-CIMMS are up to 5.7 on the
 Dvorak scale. The initial intensity is then set to 85 kt, based on
 a blend of these estimates.  An Air Force plane will be in the eye
 of Nicole around 1200 UTC this morning, and will provide an
 intensity update.
 
 Environmental conditions are conducive for some additional
 strengthening in the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be at
 its peak in intensity while it moves near Bermuda.  After 36 hours,
 the shear is forecast to increase significantly resulting in some
 weakening. Nicole should then become a post-tropical cyclone by 96
 hours.  Most of the global models indicate that the post-tropical
 cyclone will maintain winds of near hurricane strength, and so does
 the NHC forecast.
 
 Satellite fixes indicate that Nicole is moving toward the north-
 northwest or 340 degrees at 6 kt. The steering pattern has not
 changed, and in the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will become
 embedded in the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This pattern should
 force Nicole to turn to the north-northeast and then east with a
 gradual increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track is very
 similar to the previous one primarily during the next 24 to 36
 hours, bringing the core of Nicole very near or over Bermuda.  The
 forecast track is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is
 basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/0900Z 27.9N  67.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
  12H  12/1800Z 28.9N  67.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  13/0600Z 30.6N  66.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  13/1800Z 32.6N  64.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  14/0600Z 35.0N  61.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  72H  15/0600Z 39.0N  55.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
  96H  16/0600Z 40.0N  51.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  17/0600Z 40.0N  50.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila