808 
 WTNT45 KNHC 100243
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
 1100 PM AST SUN OCT 09 2016
 
 Depp convection associated with Nicole has decreased since the last
 advisory, with the primary convection now confined to an area south
 of the center.  It is unclear whether this is due to the normal
 diurnal convective minimum, entrainment of dry air seen near the
 center in water vapor imagery, or the result of cooling sea surface
 temperatures under the stationary storm.  Satellite intensity
 estimates from TAFB and SAB remain 55 kt, while the latest satellite
 consensus estimate from CIMSS is 51 kt. Based on these data, the
 initial intensity remains 55 kt.
 
 Nicole is now drifting northward, and this motion should continue
 for the next 12-24 hours as a blocking ridge of high pressure north
 of the cyclone weakens.  A deep-layer trough associated with former
 Hurricane Matthew is forecast to pass north of Nicole, with a second
 ridge passing north of the storm after 24 hours.  This should cause
 a northwestward turn, and the guidance during this stage of the
 forecast has shifted left since the previous advisory.  After 72
 hours, a new trough moving eastward from the United States should
 cause Nicole to recurve northeastward into the westerlies.  The new
 forecast track is shifted to the left between 24-72 hours, but still
 lies to the east of the various consensus models.  After 72 hours,
 the track lies a little north of the previous track.
 
 A combination of the above mentioned dry air, possible cooler
 waters, and continuing strong northerly shear should limit
 intensification for the next 12 hours or so.  After that, the shear
 should gradually subside and allow Nicole to intensify if the
 cyclone does not entrain too much low-level dry air brought
 southward due to Matthew.  The environment is most favorable at
 about 72 hours, and the new intensity forecast calls for a slightly
 increased peak intensity of 85 kt in best agreement with the SHIPS
 model.  After that time, the cyclone is expected to encounter the
 mid-latitude westerlies with increased shear partly compensated for
 by increased upper-level divergence. This environment should lead to
 gradual weakening with extratropical transition beginning near 120
 hours.
 
 
 
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0300Z 24.4N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 25.1N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 26.0N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 26.6N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  12/0000Z 27.1N  66.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  13/0000Z 28.5N  66.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  14/0000Z 32.0N  64.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 120H  15/0000Z 37.0N  58.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven