255 
 WTNT45 KNHC 080251
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
 1100 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016
 
 Strong northerly shear continues to cause all of Nicole's deep
 convection to be located in the southern semicircle of the storm.
 The deep convection has been going up and down, very typical
 for this type of sheared tropical cyclone.  ASCAT showed a sizable
 area of winds near 45 kt, and after considering the low bias of
 the instrument for a small tropical cyclone, the initial wind speed
 is reduced to 50 kt.  This is also consistent with a blend of the
 Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB.
 
 Nicole is moving southward at about 6 kt.  A motion toward the south
 or south-southeast is anticipated for the next day or so while the
 tropical cyclone is steered on the east side of a mid-level high
 between Nicole and Matthew.  The forecast gets very tricky in a
 couple of days, with the mid-level high breaking down and Matthew
 probably moving toward Nicole.  The possibility of tropical cyclone
 binary interaction appears to be increasing, which could cause
 Nicole to move toward the north or north-northwest in the 3 to 5 day
 period. The details of this interaction, however, are very sketchy,
 with models presenting a variety of fairly divergent solutions.  The
 new NHC forecast is close to the ensemble means of the UKMET, ECMWF
 and GFS, which ends up south of the previous forecast at short
 range, and to the east of the previous forecast at long range. These
 are relatively small changes since it is probably best not to move
 the forecast very much until the models come into better agreement
 on the final phase of Matthew.
 
 Northerly shear is forecast to continue near Nicole over the next
 two or three days.  Models do not show as much weakening as one
 might think, perhaps due to the very warm water that Nicole will be
 traversing, or due to Nicole's possible interaction with a shortwave
 trough.  After that time, global models generally show a decrease
 in shear and a diffluent upper-level pattern, which would support
 some restrengthening. The model guidance is slightly higher than the
 last cycle, and the latest NHC prediction is nudged in that
 direction, although the new forecast is on the low side of the
 guidance.
 
 Needless to say, this is a fairly uncertain forecast overall
 because Matthew could play a large role in a few days.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  08/0300Z 26.3N  65.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 25.5N  65.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z 24.7N  64.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z 24.8N  65.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z 25.5N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  11/0000Z 27.7N  65.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  12/0000Z 30.5N  66.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  13/0000Z 33.5N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake