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 921 
 WTNT45 KNHC 060841
 TCDAT5
 
 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
 500 AM AST THU OCT 06 2016
 
 Nicole is maintaining its intensity.  The cloud pattern has
 generally changed little since the previous advisory, and it
 consists of a central dense overcast feature with some curved bands
 to the east of the center.  Earlier microwave data did show a
 mid-level eye, but this feature is not apparent in geostationary
 satellite images.  The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
 remain 4.0/65 kt and 3.5/55 kt, respectively, and therefore, the
 initial wind speed is held at 60 kt.  Although not explicitly
 forecast, Nicole could reach hurricane strength today before it
 moves into an area of stronger shear on Friday.  The expected
 increase in shear and a drier air mass should lead to a slow
 weakening trend beginning in about 24 hours.  The NHC intensity
 forecast is an update of the previous one and is in line with the
 bulk of the guidance.
 
 Nicole is still moving northwestward at 8 kt on the southwest side
 of a mid-level ridge.  A trough currently off the coast of New
 England is expected to move southeastward and erode the ridge.
 This pattern change will likely leave Nicole in weak steering
 currents beginning in about 24 hours.  As a result, the storm is
 expected to move slowly and erratically throughout much of the
 forecast period.  The guidance is very divergent and shows solutions
 in nearly every direction.  The NHC official track forecast is
 a little to the west of the previous one, trending toward the latest
 consensus aids.  Given the large model spread, the NHC track
 forecast is of low confidence.
 
 The 34- and 50-kt wind radii were modified based on an ASCAT pass
 around 0100 UTC.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0900Z 26.5N  64.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  06/1800Z 27.3N  65.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  07/0600Z 27.8N  65.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  07/1800Z 27.8N  65.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  08/0600Z 27.2N  64.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  72H  09/0600Z 26.7N  65.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  96H  10/0600Z 27.5N  66.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  11/0600Z 29.5N  66.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 
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