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 693 
 WTNT45 KNHC 111441
 TCDAT5
 SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2004
 ...CORRECTED TO SHOW SUBTROPICAL STORM...
 NICOLE IS STILL GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH CONTINUES TO BE
 SHEARED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER BY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. 
 SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA...STILL
 INDICATE SUBTROPICAL STATUS.  A REPORT FROM THE SHIP KSDF...TO THE
 SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
 OF 45 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 988 MB.  THE SYSTEM IS
 APPROACHING A DISTINCT BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND THEREFORE WILL BECOME
 EXTRATROPICAL VERY SOON.  NICOLE MAY BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR MERGE
 WITH...A BAROCLINIC CYCLONE DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTH.  HOWEVER...THE
 LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT NICOLE COULD MAINTAIN
 ITS IDENTITY AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A FEW DAYS.  SO THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS.
 
 LATEST CENTER FIXES ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT IT APPEARS THAT
 THERE HAS BEEN SOME NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION.  HOWEVER MOST TRACK
 GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TO THE LEFT FOLLOWED BY A SLOWING OF THE
 FORWARD SPEED WITHIN 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
 EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
 DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
 THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
 10Z.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1500Z 36.0N  61.3W    40 KT
  12HR VT     12/0000Z 39.4N  62.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     12/1200Z 41.0N  63.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     13/0000Z 42.0N  63.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     13/1200Z 44.0N  62.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     14/1200Z 48.0N  59.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     15/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
  
 $$
 
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