776 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 052059
 TCDEP5
 
 HURRICANE NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
 300 PM MDT MON SEP 05 2016
 
 Satellite images indicate that Newton is continuing to strengthen.
 A ragged eye has formed on the latest visible pictures, with a more
 symmetric overall pattern in the eyewall.  The Air Force Reserve
 Hurricane Hunters have already found peak 700 mb flight-level winds
 of 74 kt, which supports making Newton a 65-kt hurricane at this
 time. Further strengthening is expected until landfall since Newton
 is in an environment of light shear and very warm water.  The
 official NHC forecast continues to be above the intensity consensus
 in the short term with rapid intensification a distinct possibility.
 Note the intensity could peak a little higher than shown below since
 landfall is forecast in between the 12 and 24 hour forecast points.
 Weakening is anticipated by tomorrow afternoon due to interaction
 with the rough terrain of the Baja California peninsula but, given
 the fast motion, Newton is expected to remain at least a strong
 tropical storm until its final landfall in Sonora.
 
 Newton is moving quickly to the northwest or 325/14.  Newton
 should gradually turn northward and northeastward over the next 48
 hours as it moves around the western periphery of a ridge over the
 southern United States.  The biggest change in the latest model
 cycle is that almost everything is faster and a bit to the left of
 the previous guidance.  This makes sense because, with a stronger
 Newton, the strong southeasterly and southerly flow aloft would
 steer the deeper storm in that direction.  The new NHC track
 prediction is adjusted to the north and west throughout the period.
 
 Newton is expected to be a large hurricane at landfall, and hazards
 are likely to affect a large portion of Baja California Sur and
 northwestern Mexico.   In addition, moisture associated with the
 remnants of Newton could cause heavy rains and localized flash
 flooding over parts of Arizona and New Mexico.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/2100Z 20.3N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  06/0600Z 21.9N 109.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  06/1800Z 24.4N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
  36H  07/0600Z 27.3N 111.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  07/1800Z 30.4N 111.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake