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 454 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 050253
 TCDEP5
 
 TROPICAL STORM NEWTON DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP152016
 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 04 2016
 
 A pair of ASCAT passes late this afternoon indicated that the
 depression was producing 30-35 kt winds on its southern side.
 Since the last advisory, the circulation and convective pattern
 have continued to improve, and both subjective and objective Dvorak
 estimates have increased.  Based on all these data, the depression
 is upgraded to Tropical Storm Newton with maximum winds of 35 kt.
 
 There might be multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common
 center, but the best estimate of the center yields an initial
 motion of 340/7 kt.  Newton is located to the south of a
 mid-tropospheric ridge which extends from Texas southwestward over
 the Pacific.  However, an amplifying trough near California is
 expected to shunt the ridge eastward within the next 24 hours,
 which will help to accelerate Newton toward the northwest or
 north-northwest during the next couple of days.  There is very
 little spread among the track guidance, but most of the models
 (with the exception of the EMCWF) are now a little faster than the
 previous NHC forecast.  The new NHC forecast is therefore a little
 faster, bringing the center of Newton very close to the extreme
 southern Baja California peninsula in about 36 hours.  After that,
 Newton is forecast to turn northward, moving over the Baja
 California peninsula, the Gulf of California, and into northwestern
 mainland Mexico by day 3.
 
 Newton is over very deep, warm water at the moment, and SSTs are
 expected to be between 28-30C until the cyclone reaches the Baja
 California peninsula.  In addition, vertical shear is expected to
 remain low for the next couple of days.  Therefore, Newton is
 expected to strengthen before it reaches land, with rapid
 intensification not out of the question.  The Rapid Intensification
 Index currently shows a 1-in-4 chance of a 30-kt increase in winds
 during the next 24 hours.  Most of the hurricane models, both
 dynamical and statistical, are only showing modest strengthening,
 but the global model fields indicate that Newton could be near
 hurricane intensity when it is near the Baja California peninsula.
 Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast now brings Newton to just
 below hurricane intensity in 36 hours, which is at the high end of
 the guidance.  Weakening should occur after 36 hours due to
 interaction with land and increasing vertical shear.
 
 Although the official forecast does not explicitly show Newton
 becoming a hurricane, it will be close enough to hurricane strength
 that the Government of Mexico has issued a hurricane warning for the
 extreme southern Baja California peninsula.  Additional tropical
 storm watches and warnings have been issued since Newton's wind
 field is expected to expand.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0300Z 17.0N 105.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  05/1200Z 18.4N 106.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  06/0000Z 20.2N 108.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  06/1200Z 22.3N 109.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  07/0000Z 24.7N 110.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...OVER BAJA PENINSULA
  72H  08/0000Z 29.9N 111.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  96H  09/0000Z 34.5N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 
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