294 
 WTPA42 PHFO 261445
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL STORM NEKI DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
 500 AM HST MON OCT 26 2009
 
 LOCATING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...LLCC...WAS A BIT TRICKY
 THIS TIME AROUND. THIS IS BECAUSE THE ATTENDANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
 MOVED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS WHILE THE LLCC APPEARS TO BE
 MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH. SO...RATHER THAN BEING PARTIALLY UNDER THE
 WEST SIDE OF THE CONVECTION AS IT HAS BEEN FOR QUITE A WHILE...THE
 LLCC NOW LOOKS TO BE AN EVER-INCREASING DISTANCE NORTHWEST OF THE
 CONVECTION. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF VISIBLE
 IMAGES TO TELL WITH CERTAINTY IF THIS IS IN FACT THE CASE.
 
 ALL THREE FIX AGENCIES CAME IN WITH CI VALUES OF 2.5 WITH NO CHANGE
 IN INTENSITY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE THREE POSITION ESTIMATES
 WERE CLOSELY GROUPED AS WELL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35
 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ESTIMATED INTENSITIES...AND IS VALIDATED
 BY A RESENT ASCAT PASS. 
 
 NEKI IS BEING STEERED TO THE NORTH BY A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
 THE NORTHEAST AND A LARGE AND INTENSIFYING MID-LATITUDE LOW TO THE
 NORTHWEST. THE LOW AND FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THE
 LOW...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL MOVE TO THE EAST...
 PLACING NEKI IN INCREASINGLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY STEERING WINDS. THE
 FORECAST THEREFORE CALLS FOR ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION TO THE NORTH
 THEN NORTH-NORTHEAST AS NEKI GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE LARGE LOW.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS NEKI AT 35 KT TO ACCOUNT FOR A TIGHT
 PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
 NORTHEAST. THE FORECASTS ARE WITHIN 5 KT OF TVCN AND HWFI THROUGH
 36 HOURS. NEKI IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/1500Z 26.8N 164.9W    35 KT
  12HR VT     27/0000Z 29.3N 164.4W    35 KT
  24HR VT     27/1200Z 35.0N 162.2W    35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     28/0000Z 44.0N 157.7W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER CRAIG