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WTPA22 PHFO 211729 CCA
TCMCP2
HURRICANE NEKI FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032009
1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2009
CORRECTED FOR WATCH AREA
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL
MONUMENT FROM NIHOA ISLAND TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO LISIANSKI. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 166.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT.......220NE 160SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 160SE 70SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 166.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 166.4W
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.2N 167.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 55NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
34 KT...210NE 160SE 60SW 85NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.8N 167.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 65NE 45SE 35SW 40NW.
34 KT...220NE 170SE 70SW 95NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.2N 168.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE 75SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.4N 168.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE 85SW 150NW.
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 24.6N 168.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 75NW.
34 KT...225NE 180SE 100SW 180NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 27.5N 168.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 30.0N 167.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 166.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON
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