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 251 
 WTPA42 PHFO 182125
 TCDCP2
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP032009
 1100 AM HST SUN OCT 18 2009
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-C HAS FORMED SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
 ISLANDS. OVERNIGHT...A LOW IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH HAD BECOME
 BETTER ORGANIZED...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED NO CLEARCUT LOW
 LEVEL CENTER AND CONVECTION WAS MAINLY AROUND THE FRINGE OF THE
 LARGE CIRCULATION.
 
 EARLY THIS MORNING...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A
 WELL-ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A LARGE AREA OF
 ACTIVE CONVECTION JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONES
 THAT FORM WITHIN LARGE...PRE-EXISTING CIRCULATIONS OFTEN DEVELOP
 RAPIDLY ONCE CONVECTION FORMS NEAR THE CENTER. THAT WAS THE CASE
 WITH THREE-C.
 
 THE DISTURBANCE THAT BECAME THREE-C HAD BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
 SOUTHWEST...STEERED BY DEEP EAST NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
 OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...A STRONG TROUGH ALOFT AND AN
 ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT NEAR MIDWAY ARE DIGGING SOUTHEAST. THE
 MEAN FLOW AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL VEER TO SOUTHEAST AND
 STEER THREE-C ON A TRACK TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST GRADUALLY
 CURVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
 AGREEMENT ON SUCH A TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS. OUR FORECAST TRACK IS
 DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF THE FAVORED TRACK MODEL
 GUIDANCE. AFTER 96 HOURS...AS THE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES OFF TO THE
 EAST...THREE-C WILL TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST.
 
 THREE-C IS OVER 83 DEGREE F WATER...WHICH SHOULD BE AMPLE TO SUPPORT
 DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FOUR
 DAYS ALONG OUR FORECAST TRACK. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING
 MODEST SHEAR...WITH A MAXIMUM OF 16 KT FROM THE ENE OVER THE NEXT
 48 HOURS...AND SHOWS SHEAR DECREASING AFTER THAT. WE SEE NO REASON
 WHY THREE-C WILL NOT INTENSIFY STEADILY FOR THE NEXT FOUR DAYS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/2100Z  8.6N 154.7W    25 KT
  12HR VT     19/0600Z  9.3N 156.6W    30 KT
  24HR VT     19/1800Z 10.7N 159.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     20/0600Z 12.1N 162.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     20/1800Z 13.2N 163.8W    55 KT
  72HR VT     21/1800Z 15.4N 166.3W    60 KT
  96HR VT     22/1800Z 17.4N 167.8W    70 KT
 120HR VT     23/1800Z 19.1N 169.6W    75 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON
  
 
 
 
 
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