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 815 
 WTNT45 KNHC 111452
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 11 2011
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER OF NATE HAS ACTUALLY
 MOVED A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...KEEPING
 THE CENTER OFFSHORE UP TO THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SATELLITE
 PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE...WITH
 LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING ANYWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION. BASED
 ON A BLEND OF DVORAK NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND A RECENT 40-KT
 SHIP OBSERVATION NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 SET TO 40 KT. NATE SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 AFTER IT MOVES INLAND...AND THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO
 DISSIPATE BY TOMORROW AS THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS THE SIERRA MADRE
 MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
  
 AFTER SOME JUMPING AROUND BETWEEN THE FINAL AIRCRAFT FIX OVERNIGHT
 AND THE SATELLITE FIXES THIS MORNING...THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS
 TO BE AROUND 275/8. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
 UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/1500Z 20.4N  96.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z 20.5N  97.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  24H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
 
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