861 
 WTNT45 KNHC 100251
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 09 2011
  
 THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH THE STRUCTURE OF NATE DURING
 THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO HAVE
 CURVED BANDING FEATURES ON THE SABANCUY RADAR...THE ASSOCIATED
 CONVECTION IS NOT VERY DEEP AND THE CENTER HAS A HOLLOW APPEARANCE
 ON INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES.  THE INITIAL WINDS ARE KEPT AT 45
 KT...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA AROUND 0600
 UTC TO OBTAIN A BETTER ESTIMATE.
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT NATE HAS MOVED A LITTLE BIT TONIGHT...
 WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/2.  A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
 BUILD TO THE NORTH OF NATE...CAUSING THE STORM TO ACCELERATE TO THE
 WEST TOMORROW.  A FAIR NUMBER OF THE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST A
 SOUTH-OF-WEST MOTION COULD OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES
 LAND...WHICH IS NOT UNCOMMON IN THAT PART OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
 OF MEXICO.  THE NEW NHC TRACK IS ADJUSTED A SMIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
 IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THOUGH IT REMAINS
 TO THE NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 NATE IS YET ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF INTENSITY
 FORECASTING.  DESPITE A SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND ALL
 MODELS SUGGESTING STRENGTHENING...THE STORM HAS LOST ORGANIZATION
 SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  ONE REASON COULD BE THAT THE STATIONARY
 SYSTEM HAS UPWELLED COOLER WATERS...CAUSING A LACK OF INSTABILITY
 NEAR THE CENTER...WHICH SEEMS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE
 DEARTH OF CENTRAL CONVECTION.   DRY AIR ALOFT ALSO MAY HAVE PLAYED
 A ROLE...THOUGH LITTLE EVIDENCE CAN BE SEEN IN SSM/IS VAPOR IMAGES. 
 IN ANY CASE...NATE IS FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER OVERNIGHT...
 WHICH SHOULD BRING THE STORM OVER WARMER WATERS.  WITH LIGHT SHEAR
 CONDITIONS LIKELY...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS THE BEST BET.  THE
 MODELS DO SHOW STRENGTHENING...THOUGH THEY HAVE BACKED OFF OF THE
 PEAK INTENSITY AND ALMOST ALL OF THEM KEEP NATE BELOW HURRICANE
 STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.  THIS REDUCTION SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
 THAT NATE IS FORECAST TO SPEND LESS TIME OVER WATER.  THUS THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS DECREASED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH
 IT REMAINS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/0300Z 20.1N  93.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 20.2N  93.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 20.1N  94.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 20.0N  95.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  12/0000Z 19.8N  96.8W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
  72H  13/0000Z 19.5N  99.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN