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 481 
 WTNT45 KNHC 072102
 TCDAT5
  
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
 400 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2011
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAY
 OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDING
 FEATURES NOTED.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LAND AND PEMEX OIL
 RIGS...ALONG WITH AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
 DATA...SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED...WITH
 LITTLE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOTED.  THUS ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED
 ON THIS SYSTEM.  SINCE THE RECON PLANE FOUND 53 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL
 ALONG WITH SFMR VALUES OF 40 TO 45 KT...THE CYCLONE IS BEING NAMED
 NATE WITH A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 40 KT.
 
 NATE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER VERY WARM WATERS WITH LITTLE VERTICAL
 WIND SHEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT INHIBITING
 FACTOR IS A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGES
 NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THIS DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME
 TIME TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER...IF AT ALL...IN A LOW SHEAR
 ENVIRONMENT.  MOST MODELS SHOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE
 FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF
 THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS.     
 
 THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING DURING THE DAY...WITH A LONG-TERM
 MOTION OF ABOUT 110/2.  NATE IS IN AN AREA OF VERY WEAK STEERING
 FLOW BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF LEE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND
 A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.  LITTLE NET MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
 THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO THIS PATTERN.  AFTER THAT TIME...A RIDGE
 OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO BUILD...WHICH SHOULD
 CAUSE NATE TO MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH...EVENTUALLY BENDING TO
 THE LEFT AS THE CYCLONE COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MEXICAN
 RIDGE.  THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
 STRENGTH OF THE RIDGES...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO
 THE HFIP MODEL CONSENSUS...A BIT SOUTH OF THE ECMWF MODEL.  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  07/2100Z 20.2N  92.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  08/0600Z 20.0N  92.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  08/1800Z 20.1N  91.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  09/0600Z 20.4N  92.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  09/1800Z 21.0N  92.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  10/1800Z 22.5N  93.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  11/1800Z 23.0N  95.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  12/1800Z 23.0N  96.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/ZELINSKY
  
 
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