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 636 
 WTNT45 KNHC 101454
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
  
 A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING WAS VERY REVEALING ON THE LOW-LEVEL
 STRUCTURE OF NATE.  THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
 WINDS... ABOUT 90 NM... IN COMBINATION WITH AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
 DISTRIBUTION.  IN ADDITION... SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT NATE
 CONTINUES TO HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG
 WESTERLY SHEAR.  THEREFORE NATE IS BEING DECLARED AN EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE...THOUGH IT HAS A FEW CHARACTERISTICS OF A REMNANT LOW AS
 WELL.  QUIKSCAT SHOWED WINDS OF ABOUT 40 KT SO THIS WILL BE
 IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC
 RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH GLOBAL MODEL
 GUIDANCE.
 
 NATE CONTINUES TO ZIP ALONG TO THE EAST... ABOUT 085/20.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE... WITH NATE BECOMING A SHALLOW SYSTEM.  A GRADUAL BEND TO
 A NORTHEAST TRACK SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
 LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL WINDS SHIFT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. 
 THIS FRONT SHOULD ABSORB THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  IT IS
 POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERN AZORES COULD RECEIVE GALE-FORCE
 WINDS WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF NATE.  THIS IS THE LAST
 ADVISORY ON NATE FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.  
  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/1500Z 34.6N  44.8W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  12HR VT     11/0000Z 35.0N  41.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     11/1200Z 36.5N  37.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     12/0000Z 39.5N  32.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     12/1200Z 44.0N  28.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     13/1200Z...ABSORBED
  
  
 $$
 
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