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 022 
 WTNT45 KNHC 100846
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
  
 NATE HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS AND
 APPEARS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BEING CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW. IF
 NATE DOES NOT PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION SOON...IT WILL NO LONGER MEET
 THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES...BASED SOLELY ON CONSTRAINTS...ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
 35 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT BASED ON A
 NEARBY SHIP WCZ8589 WHICH HAS BEEN PROVIDING VALUABLE INFORMATION
 REGARDING THE WIND AND SEAS RADII DURING THE LAST TWO ADVISORIES.
 LACKING THE NECESSARY CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN STRONG WINDS...THE
 REMNANT LOW OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT 2
 DAYS AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS
 EXPECTED TO FORM FROM THE EVOLUTION OF MARIA INTO A LARGE AND
 POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NONETHELESS...THE REMNANT
 CIRCULATION OF NATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WINDS TO GALE FORCE
 AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT.
  
 NATE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED DUE EASTWARD BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
 BEFORE AT 090/15.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO BE
 MAINTAINING NATE AS A MEDIUM TO DEEP FEATURE THUS ACCOUNTING FOR
 THEIR POLEWARD TRACK BIAS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED
 SOUTHWARD BASICALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
 GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS-BASED BAMS TRAJECTORY
 MODEL. NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
 36 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM OVERTAKES IT
 FROM THE WEST. 
  
 FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0900Z 34.8N  48.1W    45 KT
  12HR VT     10/1800Z 34.8N  45.3W    40 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     11/0600Z 35.5N  41.0W    40 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     11/1800Z 37.2N  36.5W    35 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     12/0600Z 41.5N  31.8W    35 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     13/0600Z...ABSORBED
  
  
 $$
 
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