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 950 
 WTNT45 KNHC 100246
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
  
 ALL DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS DISSIPATED AND THE
 CYCLONE NOW CONSISTS ONLY OF A SWIRL OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS.  THE RAPID
 DEMISE OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
 COMBINATION OF VERY STRONG SHEAR...32 KT AS MEASURED BY UW-CIMSS
 SATELLITE WINDS...AND DRY AIR SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
 SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE NOW BASED ENTIRELY ON CONSTRAINTS AND
 CURRENTLY VARY FROM 35 KT TO 55 KT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT
 IS BASED ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS OVER THE CYCLONE AND A
 CIRA/NESDIS AMSU ESTIMATE OF 52 KT.  NATE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
 WITHIN A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND IS CURRENTLY OVER SUB 26C
 SST.  THUS NATE SHOULD WEAKEN AT A MODERATE RATE.  NATE WILL BEGIN
 TO TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 36 HOURS...BUT
 WILL LACK SUFFICIENT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION. 
  
 NOW THAT NATE IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT IS BEING STEERED A LITTLE
 MORE EASTWARD OR APPROXIMATELY 085/21. SINCE THE RAPID DEGRADATION
 OF THE CONVECTION BEGINNING YESTERDAY...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
 BEEN TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH.  BASED ON THIS AND THE
 ALMOST DUE EASTWARD MOTION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AND IS BASICALLY ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
 THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. NATE WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO A
 LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 2 TO 3
 DAYS RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.
  
 FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      10/0300Z 34.8N  49.6W    55 KT
  12HR VT     10/1200Z 35.2N  45.9W    45 KT
  24HR VT     11/0000Z 36.1N  41.7W    40 KT
  36HR VT     11/1200Z 38.3N  37.1W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     12/0000Z 42.2N  33.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     13/0000Z...ABSORBED
  
  
 $$
 
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