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 453 
 WTNT45 KNHC 092027
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
  
 A COMBINATION OF STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
 AIR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN NATE.  ALL OF THE LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
 IS IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE WITH AN EXPOSED
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE FALLING AS QUICKLY
 AS THE RULES ALLOW AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 55
 KT....WHICH COULD BE A BIT GENEROUS.  SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE
 HIGH... MOSTLY 25 KT OR GREATER... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
 WHICH SHOULD INDUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.  IN ADDITION...NATE WILL
 BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...ACCELERATING THE
 TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND 36 HOURS.  
 
 NATE IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 075/21. THE
 CYCLONE EXPECTED TO WHIP AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF MARIA FOR ABOUT
 36 HOURS... THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST DUE TO A LARGE
 MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE GFS MODEL
 KEEPS NATE SEPARATE FROM THE TROUGH FOR ABOUT 3 DAYS BEFORE
 BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE LARGER CIRCULATION... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  
  
 FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/2100Z 34.8N  52.1W    55 KT
  12HR VT     10/0600Z 35.3N  48.3W    45 KT
  24HR VT     10/1800Z 36.0N  44.0W    40 KT
  36HR VT     11/0600Z 37.5N  39.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     11/1800Z 40.5N  35.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     12/1800Z 50.0N  26.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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