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 467 
 WTNT45 KNHC 091432
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
 
 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS NATE ALMOST DEVOID OF ANY DEEP
 CONVECTION.  VISIBLE PICTURES SHOW NATE WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
 CIRCULATION AS A RESULT OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. 
 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 4.5...4.0...AND 4.0 FROM
 TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC RESPECTIVELY...BASED PRIMARILY ON CONSTRAINTS
 OF THE TECHNIQUE. DUE TO THE DEGENERATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND 
 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITIES CONTINUING TO LOWER...NATE HAS BEEN
 DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  NATE REMAINS INFLUENCED BY STRONG
 UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR
 BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER CIRCULATION. NATE SHOULD
 CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
 THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  
 
 NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 070/21. NATE IS EXPECTED
 TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN TWO OR
 THREE DAYS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
 LEVEL TROUGH SOON AFTER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
 CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
 FORECAST.  THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A
 RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.
 
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/1500Z 34.3N  54.6W    60 KT
  12HR VT     10/0000Z 35.1N  50.9W    55 KT
  24HR VT     10/1200Z 35.8N  46.2W    50 KT
  36HR VT     11/0000Z 36.8N  41.5W    45 KT
  48HR VT     11/1200Z 39.1N  37.1W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     12/1200Z 47.0N  27.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     13/1200Z...ABSORBED
  
  
 $$
 
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