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 712 
 WTNT45 KNHC 090914
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY COMING OUT OF THE ECLIPSE SHOWS THAT THE
 CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE ASSOCIATED WITH NATE HAS RAPIDLY DEGENERATED.  
 WHILE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM
 TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...THESE NUMBERS ARE BASED ON CONSTRAINTS. 
 GIVEN THE RAPID DECAY OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...THE LATEST
 UW-CIMSS RAW AODT VALUE OF 4.3 IS USED FOR THE BASIS OF THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY OF 70 KT. NATE NOW APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
 STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND PERHAPS SOME DRY AIR INTRUSION
 WHICH HAS PROVIDED A ONE-TWO PUNCH.  THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
 INCREASE SO FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST NOW WEAKENS NATE MORE QUICKLY THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 AND BRINGS NATE BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS. 
 ADDITIONALLY...NATE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL A
 LITTLE QUICKER. LACKING SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS
 NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EXTRATROPICAL PHASE.
  
 NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
 EAST-NORTHEAST OR 065/19. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY
 EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
 LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
 THE NEXT 2 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...
 NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
 REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
 MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
 FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/0900Z 33.6N  58.1W    70 KT
  12HR VT     09/1800Z 34.3N  55.0W    60 KT
  24HR VT     10/0600Z 35.1N  50.2W    50 KT
  36HR VT     10/1800Z 36.1N  44.8W    45 KT
  48HR VT     11/0600Z 37.3N  40.5W    40 KT
  72HR VT     12/0600Z 45.1N  30.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     13/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
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