Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 574 
 WTNT45 KNHC 090236
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT NATE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A
 WELL-ORGANIZED AND IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DURING THE LAST
 FEW HOURS.  IN FACT...THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
 T5.0...OR 90 KT...FROM TAFB IMPLIES SOME STRENGTHENING.  DVORAK
 T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 4.5...OR 77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA. 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
 THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES.  MORE RECENTLY...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
 BEGUN TO SHOW THE TELL-TALE SIGNS OF INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
 WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW BECOMING RESTRICTED TO
 THE SOUTHWEST AND EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...A
 RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWED VERY DRY AIR JUST NORTH OF NATE.  IN LIGHT
 OF THIS...NATE IS LIKELY PEAKING AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
 WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. NATE SHOULD ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL
 CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A MUCH
 LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THEREAFTER.  LACKING SIGNIFICANT
 BAROCLINIC SUPPORT...NATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AFTER
 EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS COMPLETE.
  
 NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE
 EAST-NORTHEAST OR 060/18. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK QUICKLY
 EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGE UPPER
 LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING
 THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. ONCE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS UNDERWAY...
 NATE IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHEASTWARD. NHC TRACK GUIDANCE
 REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN
 MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
  
 FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      09/0300Z 33.0N  60.2W    80 KT
  12HR VT     09/1200Z 34.3N  57.4W    75 KT
  24HR VT     10/0000Z 35.3N  52.6W    70 KT
  36HR VT     10/1200Z 36.2N  47.7W    60 KT
  48HR VT     11/0000Z 37.3N  43.5W    55 KT
  72HR VT     12/0000Z 44.0N  32.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for NATE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman