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 496 
 WTNT45 KNHC 082028
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
  
 THE EYE HAS BEEN INTTERMMITTENT DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND
 THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
 SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS
 EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERAFTER...NATE SHOULD BEGIN
 TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS IT
 MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR AND THEN BECOME ABSORBED
 BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE.
  
 NATE HAS BEEN ACCELERATINGLY AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
 ABOUT 14 KNOTS....WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
 MID-LATITUDE FLOW. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE IS
 HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE WITH
 THIS GENERAL MOTION...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/2100Z 31.8N  62.0W    75 KT
  12HR VT     09/0600Z 33.0N  60.0W    70 KT
  24HR VT     09/1800Z 35.0N  55.5W    65 KT
  36HR VT     10/0600Z 36.0N  51.0W    60 KT
  48HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  46.0W    50 KT
  72HR VT     11/1800Z 41.0N  35.0W    40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER LOW
  
  
 $$
 
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