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 171 
 WTNT45 KNHC 081425
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
  
 NATE CONTINUES TO HAVE A RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP
 CONVECTION. THERE IS ALSO A WELL-DEFINED CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO
 THE EAST. THE OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH AND
 IT IS NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS IT WAS YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS
 STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
 STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NATE SHOULD
 BEGIN TO ACQUIRE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN ABOUT 72 HOURS AS
 IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATER AND HIGHER SHEAR.
  
 NATE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 9 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
 MID-LATITUDE CIRCULATION. GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...SO THERE
 IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST THAT NATE WILL CONTINUE
 WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/1500Z 30.9N  63.2W    75 KT
  12HR VT     09/0000Z 32.0N  61.0W    75 KT
  24HR VT     09/1200Z 33.5N  57.0W    75 KT
  36HR VT     10/0000Z 35.0N  52.0W    65 KT
  48HR VT     10/1200Z 36.5N  47.0W    60 KT
  72HR VT     11/1200Z 39.5N  36.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     12/1200Z 44.0N  26.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     13/1200Z 50.0N  17.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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