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 305 
 WTNT45 KNHC 080854
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005
  
 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING NATE
 THIS MORNING FOUND 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 85 KT IN THE
 SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH CONFIRMS THE 75-KT SATELLITE-BASED
 INTENSITY USED IN THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES...AND THAT IS THE
 INTENSITY USED IN THIS ADVISORY. THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED
 IN SATELLITE APPEARNCE...WHICH IS CORROBORATED BY THE FLIGHT CREW .
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 050/8. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. NATE HAS FINALLY ROUNDED THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEAST OR
 EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL
 GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 NATE'S INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY FOR
 THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...COOLER WATER AND STRONG
 UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BRING ABOUT RAPID WEAKENING AND
 TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
 AZORES.
  
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/0900Z 30.2N  64.6W    75 KT
  12HR VT     08/1800Z 31.2N  63.1W    75 KT
  24HR VT     09/0600Z 32.9N  60.1W    75 KT
  36HR VT     09/1800Z 34.5N  55.9W    75 KT
  48HR VT     10/0600Z 36.0N  50.6W    70 KT
  72HR VT     11/0600Z 40.0N  38.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     12/0600Z 44.0N  28.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     13/0600Z 48.1N  18.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
 
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