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 383 
 WTNT45 KNHC 080241
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
  
 ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A 20 NM...RAGGED EYE WHICH
 APPEARS TO BE OPEN ON THE EAST SIDE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
 DRY AIR IS BEING PULLED IN FROM THE SOUTH.  DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AS DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  AN
 AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
 REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT.  A SMALL WINDOW OF
 OPPORTUNITY FOR INTENSIFICATION EXISTS BEFORE THE UPPER WESTERLIES
 MOVE OVER THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 040/5.  A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PRESENTLY
 MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS
 MID-LATITUDE FEATURE SHOULD HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
 WESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND
 THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST GFS RUN SUGGESTS THAT NATE WILL
 BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 60
 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET INDICATES BINARY INTERACTION WITH MARIA
 NEAR DAY 4...ULTIMATELY MERGING INTO A VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL
 SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE
 FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS THE CONU MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS FORECAST KEEPS
 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD
 NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE
 WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.
  
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/0300Z 29.8N  65.4W    75 KT
  12HR VT     08/1200Z 30.6N  64.5W    80 KT
  24HR VT     09/0000Z 31.9N  62.2W    75 KT
  36HR VT     09/1200Z 33.4N  58.8W    75 KT
  48HR VT     10/0000Z 35.1N  54.0W    70 KT
  72HR VT     11/0000Z 38.0N  43.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     12/0000Z 42.0N  32.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     13/0000Z 46.0N  21.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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