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 771 
 WTNT45 KNHC 072037
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
  
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KT BASED ON THE DVORAK
 CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...WITH ODT ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER. AN
 AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
 REACH THE HURRICANE AROUND 6Z TONIGHT.  NATE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A
 RAGGED CLOUD-FILLED EYE UNDERNEATH A WELL-DEFINED ANTICYCLONIC
 FLOW.  HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BAND OF STRONG
 WESTERLIES IS APPROACHING NATE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THIS FLOW MAY
 BEGIN TO RESTRICT AND/OR UNDERCUT THE OUTFLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
 TWO.  LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE SHEAR
 BEGINS TO INCREASE.  THE GFS FORECASTS THAT NATE WILL BECOME
 ABSORBED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF MARIA WITHIN ABOUT 72
 HOURS...BUT ALL OTHER GUIDANCE...AS WELL AS THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST...MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
 THE HURRICANE IS WOBBLING AT 035/4. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR TRACK. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
 JUST EAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS WEAKENING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
 MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY
 AND HELP TO ESTABLISH A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW THAT
 SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN
 EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
 MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS FORECAST KEEPS HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO THE
 SOUTH OF BERMUDA...HOWEVER...SHOULD NATE MOVE MORE TO THE NORTH
 THAN EXPECTED...A SHORT-FUSED HURRICANE WARNING MIGHT BE REQUIRED
 OVERNIGHT.
  
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/2100Z 29.5N  65.8W    75 KT
  12HR VT     08/0600Z 30.1N  65.3W    80 KT
  24HR VT     08/1800Z 31.2N  63.7W    80 KT
  36HR VT     09/0600Z 32.5N  61.0W    80 KT
  48HR VT     09/1800Z 34.2N  57.0W    75 KT
  72HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  47.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     11/1800Z 41.0N  36.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     12/1800Z 45.0N  24.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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