Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 288 
 WTNT45 KNHC 071457
 TCDAT5
 HURRICANE NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RAGGED EYE THIS
 MORNING...AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AVERAGE ABOUT 70 KT. 
 THEREFORE...NATE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE
 SYSTEM HAS FAIRLY WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW...AND SOME
 ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEFORE VERTICAL SHEAR
 BECOMES PROHIBITIVELY STRONG.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS
 ABOVE THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT A LITTLE BELOW THE FSU
 SUPERENSEMBLE.  THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON
 QUIKSCAT DATA.
 
 INITIAL MOTION IS NOT DEFINITIVE...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLOWLY
 NORTHWARD.  A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
 THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID IN
 TURNING NATE TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  BASED ON
 THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
 IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OR EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  HOWEVER...
 THIS IS NEAR THE LEFT EDGE OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  
 
 BECAUSE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY...NATE COULD STILL MOVE VERY NEAR
 OVER BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
 AND A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THAT ISLAND.
 
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/1500Z 29.2N  66.2W    70 KT
  12HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  66.1W    75 KT
  24HR VT     08/1200Z 30.4N  65.2W    80 KT
  36HR VT     09/0000Z 31.6N  63.0W    80 KT
  48HR VT     09/1200Z 33.1N  59.5W    75 KT
  72HR VT     10/1200Z 36.0N  50.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     11/1200Z 39.0N  40.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     12/1200Z 43.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for NATE

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman