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 282 
 WTNT45 KNHC 070919
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7...CORRECTED
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 AM EDT WED SEP 07 2005
 
 CORRECTED INTENSITY TABLE
  
 MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE DATA INDICATE NATE HAS MOVED LITTLE
 ...BUT MAY BE STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A SLOW NORTHWEST OR
 NORTHWARD DRIFT. A PARTIAL EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED
 IMAGERY...SO THE INTENSITY WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO 60 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION GUESSTIMATE IS 315/02...BUT NATE COULD BE
 QUASI-STATIONARY OR DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE TO THE
 NORTH OF NATE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WITHIN 24 HOURS BY ALL OF THE
 GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN MOVING
 NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS AS
 SRONMG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK
 IS A LITTLE NORTH...OR LEFT...OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE
 UKMET'S STRONG FAST AND RIGHT BIAS FROM THE OUTSET. ON THE FORECAST
 TRACK...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA IN
 ABOUT 36 HOURS.
  
 SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THAT 
 AN EYE FEATURE IS TRYING TO FORM AND THAT NATE IS EXPECTED TO
 REMAIN IN LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 AFTER THAT...INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR OF
 35-45 KT SHOULD INDUCE STEADY AND POSSIBLY EVEN RAPID WEAKENING.
  
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0900Z 28.8N  66.5W    60 KT
  12HR VT     07/1800Z 29.2N  66.7W    65 KT
  24HR VT     08/0600Z 30.1N  66.2W    70 KT
  36HR VT     08/1800Z 31.6N  64.7W    80 KT...NEAR BERMUDA
  48HR VT     09/0600Z 33.0N  61.5W    75 KT
  72HR VT     10/0600Z 36.1N  53.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     11/0600Z 39.5N  42.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     12/0600Z 44.0N  29.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 
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