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 553 
 WTNT45 KNHC 070258
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
  
 AN EARLIER SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER WAS
 SITUATED ABOUT 28 NM FARTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  THE
 IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED THAT A BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE
 DEVELOPING.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM AFWA AND SAB HAVE
 INCREASED TO 55 KT...WHILE THE TAFB ESTIMATE CAME IN AT 65 KT. 
 BASED ON THE INCREASE OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND THE IMPROVED
 INNER CORE DEPICTED IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS ADJUSTED TO 55 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
 IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL
 GUIDANCE.
  
 NATE IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA AND
 DEPRESSION SIXTEEN APPEAR TO BE INFLUENCING NATE'S LACK OF MOTION.
 THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND DOES NOT
 APPEAR TO AFFECTING THE STEERING FLOW TO THE NORTH OF NATE.  THIS
 PATTERN SHOULD HOLD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY
 LITTLE MOTION...POSSIBLY A SLIGHT NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT.
 
 GLOBAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST WEAKENING OVER
 THE NEXT FEW DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
 MOVING OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD.  THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS
 THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
 BASED OFF THE CONU CONSENSUS.
  
 NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA AS A
 HURRICANE...WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE
 ISLAND REMAINS TO BE SEEN.  A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
 REQUIRED WEDNESDAY MORNING.
  
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      07/0300Z 28.8N  66.3W    55 KT
  12HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  66.5W    65 KT
  24HR VT     08/0000Z 29.6N  66.7W    70 KT
  36HR VT     08/1200Z 30.5N  66.0W    80 KT
  48HR VT     09/0000Z 31.8N  64.0W    80 KT
  72HR VT     10/0000Z 35.0N  57.0W    75 KT
  96HR VT     11/0000Z 38.5N  46.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 120HR VT     12/0000Z 44.0N  33.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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