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 613 
 WTNT45 KNHC 062029
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
  
 ALTHOUGH MICROWAVE PASSES FROM THIS MORNING SUGGESTED THAT THE
 LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY HAVE BEEN DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF
 THE MID-LEVEL CENTER DETERMINED FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY...VISIBLE
 IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION OF A
 WELL-ORGANIZED CYCLONE.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
 SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
 REMAIN 50 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED
 DIRECTLY OVER NATE...AND THERE IS NO OBVIOUS REASON WHY THE SYSTEM
 SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY BEFORE THE WIND SHEAR INCREASES IN A COUPLE OF
 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST BLENDS THE SHIPS AND GFDL
 GUIDANCE.
  
 NATE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...CAUGHT BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL
 CIRCULATIONS OF MARIA TO THE NORTHEAST AND DEPRESSION SIXTEEN TO
 THE WEST...AND UNDERNEATH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND.  THIS
 PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 36
 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SUGGESTING THAT THE
 HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL COLLAPSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
 DAYS AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE NORTH AMERICAN
 CONTINENT.  THIS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NATE
 NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS OF THE RELATIVELY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
 DYNAMICAL MODELS.
  
 THERE IS SOME SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EARLY PART OF THE
 FORECAST...WITH THE UKMET SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO WESTWARD MOTION
 BEFORE RECURVATURE WHILE THE GFS AND GFDL TAKE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
 NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE TURNING. THIS LATTER SCENARIO TAKES THE
 CYCLONE CLOSER TO BERMUDA. NATE IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAIRLY CLOSE TO
 BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE...BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO TELL AT THIS POINT
 WHETHER IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE ISLAND.  A
 HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED SOMETIME WEDNESDAY.
  
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/2100Z 28.7N  66.7W    50 KT
  12HR VT     07/0600Z 28.8N  67.0W    60 KT
  24HR VT     07/1800Z 29.2N  67.4W    70 KT
  36HR VT     08/0600Z 29.7N  67.5W    80 KT
  48HR VT     08/1800Z 31.0N  66.5W    80 KT
  72HR VT     09/1800Z 33.5N  61.0W    75 KT
  96HR VT     10/1800Z 37.0N  52.0W    55 KT
 120HR VT     11/1800Z 43.0N  38.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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