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 979 
 WTNT45 KNHC 061502
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL STORM NATE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT TUE SEP 06 2005
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH
 NATE HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION
 HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL
 QUADRANTS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF
 THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
 BE LOW FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO SO NATE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
 HURRICANE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL
 TRENDS.
 
 NATE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SO LITTLE MOTION
 IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...NATE SHOULD
 BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A HIGH DEVELOPS EAST OF NATE. BEYOND 48
 HOURS...NATE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST OR
 WEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG MID LATITUDE TROUGH. NATE SHOULD
 THEN TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
 SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.
 
 IT APPEARS THAT BERMUDA WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST PATH OF NATE.
 THEREFORE...ALL INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
 PROGRESS OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/1500Z 28.7N  66.7W    50 KT
  12HR VT     07/0000Z 28.8N  66.9W    60 KT
  24HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  67.2W    70 KT
  36HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  67.5W    80 KT
  48HR VT     08/1200Z 30.5N  67.5W    80 KT
  72HR VT     09/1200Z 32.5N  64.5W    80 KT
  96HR VT     10/1200Z 37.0N  53.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     11/1200Z 42.5N  41.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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