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 222 
 WTNT45 KNHC 052027
 TCDAT5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT MON SEP 05 2005
 
 SATELLITE DATA DURING THE DAY INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS NOW ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO
 BE STARTED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN. DEEP CONVECTION HAS
 DEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER WHICH HAS MEANDERED IN
 A CYCLONIC LOOP FOR MOST OF THE DAY.  BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO
 BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED. THE SYSTEM LIES NEAR A MID/UPPER LEVEL
 RIDGE AXIS WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE
 BAHAMAS...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
 THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SLOW STRENGTHENING OF THE
 CYCLONE THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. BEYOND THIS
 TIME...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GET CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES
 ASSOCIATED WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S.
 COAST. THIS SHOULD INCREASE THE SHEAR AND PUT AN END TO THE
 INTENSIFICATION. SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE FOLLOWS THIS TREND...PEAKING
 THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 CLOSE TO SHIPS THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN CONSERVATIVELY PEAKING AT 50
 KT AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN
 INDICATED...ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST 72 HOURS UNDER THE
 FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
 
 AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE DEPRESSION HAS MEANDERED IN A CYCLONIC LOOP
 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AFTER A SLOW NORTHWEST MOTION LAST NIGHT.
 BECAUSE OF THIS CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM MOTION...THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS SET TO STATIONARY. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK
 FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOVERS NEAR THE
 SYSTEM. BEYOND 72 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LONGWAVE TROUGH
 MOVING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN THE MID/UPPER
 LEVEL RIDGE AND START TURNING THE CYCLONE TO THE NORTH AND
 NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TRACK GUIDANCE IS
 QUITE SCATTERED AS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A SYSTEM UNDER WEAK
 STEERING CURRENTS...WITH THE GFS AND U.K. MET OFFICE MODELS MOVING
 THE CYCLONE VERY LITTLE FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A MOTION
 TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST IN THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
 THE NOGAPS MODEL MOVES THE SYSTEM FASTER TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
 THROUGH 72 HOURS BEFORE RECURVATURE. THE GFDL MODEL IS
 SIMILAR...BUT  SLOWER...TO THE NOGAPS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE
 TO THAT OF THE GFDL...EXCEPT SOMEWHAT SLOWER DUE TO THE INITIAL
 STATIONARY MOTION. 
  
 FORECASTER MOLLEDA/PASCH
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      05/2100Z 27.8N  67.5W    25 KT
  12HR VT     06/0600Z 27.8N  67.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     06/1800Z 27.9N  68.2W    35 KT
  36HR VT     07/0600Z 28.0N  69.0W    40 KT
  48HR VT     07/1800Z 28.3N  70.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     08/1800Z 29.5N  72.0W    50 KT
  96HR VT     09/1800Z 31.0N  72.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     10/1800Z 32.0N  70.5W    50 KT
  
  
 $$
 
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