702 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 091443
 TCDEP4
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142013
 800 AM PDT WED OCT 09 2013
 
 A LIMITED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS ONGOING IN THE SOUTHERN
 SEMICIRCLE...ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN NARDA AS A MARGINAL TROPICAL
 CYCLONE FOR ANOTHER ADVISORY CYCLE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO
 FALL AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 25 KT.  THE SYSTEM HAS
 BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OF THE
 EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN WHICH...ALONG WITH SOME SHEAR...SHOULD
 CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER WEAKENING.  NARDA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE
 TO A REMNANT LOW BY THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE IN 2-3 DAYS.
  
 NARDA IS DRIFTING WESTWARD...AND SHOULD TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
 LATER TODAY DUE TO LOW-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY TRADES OVER THE EASTERN
 PACIFIC.  THE GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
 SCENARIO...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
 ONE. 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/1500Z 16.9N 128.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 16.7N 128.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  10/1200Z 16.3N 129.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  11/0000Z 15.8N 130.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  11/1200Z 15.3N 131.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE