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 111 
 WTNT44 KNHC 131444
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2008
  
 AS EXPECTED...WESTERLY SHEAR HAS CONTINUED TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON NANA.
 THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
 YESTERDAY AND THE CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED.  DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES SUPPORT DOWNGRADING NANA TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 
 THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS AND NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 
 A DAY OR SO. 
 
 THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MOVING ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
 AT ABOUT 6 KT.  NANA OR ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A
 WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS
 CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
 OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/1500Z 16.8N  39.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     14/0000Z 17.1N  40.6W    30 KT
  24HR VT     14/1200Z 17.6N  41.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     15/0000Z 18.5N  43.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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