263 
 WTNT44 KNHC 130240
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM NANA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142008
 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2008
  
 WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST
 OF THE CENTER.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 2030Z HAD BELIEVABLE 35 KT
 VECTORS...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  WITH NO
 APPRECIABLE LET UP OF THE SHEAR INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS OVER
 THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...NANA IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT
 LOW FAIRLY SOON.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/7.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
 OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THIS TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
 THE GFS...WITH MOST OF THE REMAINING GUIDANCE A LITTLE FARTHER
 NORTH.  IF NANA DOES NOT WEAKEN AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED...IT
 PROBABLY WOULD INTERACT MORE STRONGLY WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND
 TAKE A TRACK TO THE RIGHT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0300Z 16.6N  38.8W    35 KT
  12HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N  40.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     14/0000Z 17.2N  41.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     14/1200Z 17.9N  42.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     15/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER FRANKLIN