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 013 
 WTNT45 KNHC 122033
 TCDAT5
 
 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  15
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
 500 PM AST Fri Oct 12 2018
 
 The center of Nadine is now completely exposed to the west of a
 waning area of deep convection due to 35-40 kt of southwesterly
 shear. Based on a blend of the latest Dvorak CI and Final-T numbers
 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt.
 This could be a little generous, but hopefully ASCAT will sample
 the system later this evening to provide a better idea of how much
 the winds have weakened. The NHC intensity forecast has been lowered
 from the previous one, and now shows Nadine becoming a depression by
 12 hours and a remnant low by 24 hours, but both could happen
 sooner.
 
 The now shallow cyclone has turned west-northwestward, with an
 initial motion estimate of 285/13. Nadine and its remnants should
 move quickly westward in the low-level trade wind flow until
 dissipation. The new NHC track is close to the middle of the
 guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/2100Z 16.4N  37.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  13/0600Z 16.5N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  13/1800Z 16.7N  42.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan
 
 
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