289 
 WTNT45 KNHC 120846
 TCDAT5
 
 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
 500 AM AST Fri Oct 12 2018
 
 A 0353 UTC AMSR-2 microwave overpass and GOES-16 shortwave infrared
 imagery show that the 30-40 kt of west-southwesterly shear, depicted
 in the UW-CIMSS shear analysis, is partially exposing, or
 decoupling, Nadine's surface circulation from the convective mass.
 The cloud pattern, however, hasn't changed during the past 6 hours
 and in fact, the cloud top temperatures in the curved band over the
 north semicircle have decreased somewhat.  TAFB and SAB satellite
 intensity estimates remained unchanged, and the initial intensity is
 held at 45 kt.
 
 The Decay SHIPS statistical intensity model indicates that the shear
 will persist and increase a little more which should cause Nadine to
 spin down and dissipate in 48 hours, or possibly sooner.  The
 large-scale models all show the cyclone opening up into a trough of
 low pressure and ultimately dissipating over the deep tropical
 central Atlantic at that time.  The official forecast follows suit
 and is an update of the previous advisory.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 295/7
 kt.  A low to mid-level ridge anchored between Nadine to the south
 and Hurricane Leslie to the north, should steer the cyclone
 west-northwestward and then westward at an accelerated pace until
 dissipation.  The NHC forecast has again been adjusted a little
 south and toward both the NOAA-HCCA and TVCN consensus models.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  12/0900Z 15.2N  35.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  12/1800Z 15.4N  37.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  13/0600Z 15.6N  39.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  13/1800Z 15.8N  42.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  48H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts