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 083 
 WTNT45 KNHC 102038
 TCDAT5
 
 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
 500 PM AST Wed Oct 10 2018
 
 The exposed low-level center of Nadine is now peeking out from
 beneath its upper cloud canopy. The initial intensity has been held
 at 55 kt out of respect for earlier ASCAT data, but it is possible
 that some weakening has occurred since this morning. Strong westerly
 wind shear will likely prevent Nadine from becoming any better
 organized going forward, so the official intensity forecast now
 calls for steady weakening for the next 2 days. All of the dynamical
 models indicate that Nadine will degenerate into a trough of low
 pressure within the next 72 h, and the NHC forecast now shows
 dissipation occuring by that point.
 
 Nadine is moving steadily northwestward with an initial motion of
 315/7 kt.  As long as Nadine remains a tropical cyclone, it should
 stay on a similar heading, and the models are in generally good
 agreement on its track.  The NHC track forecast has been adjusted a
 little to the southwest, and is generally close to the TVCX and HCCA
 consensus aids at all times.  From 48 h onward, the cyclone or its
 remnant trough will likely be entirely separated from its convection
 and turn westward in low-level easterly flow.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/2100Z 13.1N  32.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 13.8N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 14.8N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 15.7N  35.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 16.2N  36.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 
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