625 
 WTNT45 KNHC 101449
 TCDAT5
 
 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   6
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 10 2018
 
 Several microwave overpasses after 0600 UTC indicated that Nadine
 very quickly developed a well-defined mid-level eye overnight.
 This signature is typically associated with strengthening tropical
 cyclones. Although more recent visible imagery indicates that strong
 shear has since caused the cyclone to become tilted with height, a
 pair of ASCAT passes around 1200 UTC indicated maximum winds of
 45-50 kt.  Given the small size of the tropical storm, the ASCAT
 likely under-sampled the true maximum, so the initial intensity has
 been raised to 55 kt.  Due to limitations in our ability to observe
 the intensity of small tropical storms far from land, it should be
 noted that this estimate is fairly uncertain.
 
 Since the tropical storm appears to have become more tilted since
 last night, further strengthening is not likely.  Shear analysis
 from UW-CIMSS shows that Nadine is moving into a region of 20-30 kt
 of westerly shear, and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that the shear
 could increase to near 40 kt in another couple of days.  All of the
 intensity guidance indicates that Nadine will weaken quickly by
 tomorrow, and it could become a depression by 72 h.  Dissipation
 will likely follow shortly after, as shown by nearly all of the
 global and regional models.
 
 The aforementioned ASCAT passes were very helpful in locating the
 center of Nadine at 1200 UTC, and the tropical storm is moving
 northwestward, or 325/6 kt.  A northwestward to north-northwestward
 motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated for the next day or
 two.  By Friday, a turn toward the west will likely begin as the
 low-level circulation of Nadine becomes separated from its
 convection and turns westward in the low-level easterlies. Nadine
 is essentially on the track of the previous NHC forecast, and no
 significant changes to the track forecast were required.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/1500Z 12.6N  31.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 13.5N  32.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z 14.6N  32.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z 15.7N  33.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z 16.5N  35.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  13/1200Z 17.5N  39.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky