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 868 
 WTNT45 KNHC 100238
 TCDAT5
 
 Tropical Storm Nadine Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152018
 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 09 2018
 
 Deep convection has been increasing in the eastern semicircle of
 Nadine, with the center close to the western edge of large
 convective band.  Overall, the satellite presentation has improved
 in the past several hours, although the outflow is limited west of
 the center.  While subjective estimates are unchanged from the last
 advisory, microwave-based estimates suggest Nadine is somewhat
 stronger, so the initial wind speed is set to 40 kt.  Light or
 moderate shear is anticipated during the next day or so, along
 with sufficiently warm waters, which should promote strengthening.
 However, Nadine should encounter a large upper trough after that
 time, which will likely cause weakening to begin on Thursday. Later
 on, cooler SSTs and strong shear are expected to cause Nadine to
 degenerate into a trough of low pressure by the weekend.  The most
 significant change is that the model guidance is notably higher
 than the last cycle, with a few models even making Nadine a
 hurricane eventually.  That seems unlikely given the strength of
 the forecast shear, but the forecast is nudged higher than the
 previous one and the model consensus.
 
 Nadine continues to turn rightward and is now moving northwestward
 at about 7 kt.  This general course is forecast for the next couple
 of days due to steering from a mid-level ridge near the Cabo Verde
 Islands.  After that time, a west-northwestward or westward turn is
 expected as Nadine becomes a shallow system and dissipates.  The
 model spread is still fairly wide, with the stronger guidance
 generally on the eastern side of the model envelope, and the weaker
 guidance on the western side.  There is definitely a slight trend
 to the northeast with the latest model guidance, and since we are
 expecting a stronger system, the official forecast is adjusted in
 that direction, but not nearly as far to the right as most of the
 GFS-based guidance.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/0300Z 11.6N  31.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  10/1200Z 12.3N  31.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  11/0000Z 13.4N  32.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  11/1200Z 14.8N  33.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  12/0000Z 16.0N  35.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  13/0000Z 17.5N  38.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
  96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Blake
 
 
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