721 
 WTNT44 KNHC 030838
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  83
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
 500 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012
 
 NADINE IS SHOWING A SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING...WITH THE
 LOW-LEVEL CENTER PARTLY EXPOSED AT THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
 CENTRAL CONVECTION DUE TO 20-30 KT OF NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
 T-NUMBERS AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
 NADINE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION
 NOW 075/9.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW AND
 ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING NADINE FROM THE
 NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CAUSE THE MUCH SMALLER NADINE TO
 ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
 NEXT 48 HR...AND DURING THIS TIME THE FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE
 CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE GUIDANCE BECOMES
 DIVERGENT BETWEEN 48-72 HR...WITH THE GFS-BASED GUIDANCE NOW
 FORECASTING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION...WHILE THE ECMWF AND UKMET CALL
 FOR NADINE TO TURN WESTWARD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW.  THIS
 PART OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE ECMWF AND UKMET IN AGREEMENT
 WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE FROM THE OCEAN PREDICTION
 CENTER.
 
 NADINE SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING SHEAR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE STORM REACHES THE
 AZORES...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF SOME WEAKENING OCCURRED. 
 THE CYCLONE SHOULD MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND BECOME
 EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HR...WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING ABSORBED
 WITHIN THE LARGE DEEP-LAYER LOW AFTER 72 HR.
  
 THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED BASED ON INPUT FROM THE
 OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  03/0900Z 34.9N  34.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  03/1800Z 35.8N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  04/0600Z 38.7N  29.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  04/1800Z 42.7N  27.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  05/0600Z 46.8N  25.9W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  06/0600Z 48.0N  29.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  96H  07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN