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 106 
 WTNT44 KNHC 020835
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  79
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
 500 AM AST TUE OCT 02 2012
 
 THE STORM IS MAINTAINING A RING OF MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A
 RAGGED EYE-LIKE FEATURE.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
 KEPT AT 55 KT.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A REGION OF
 RELATIVELY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE AXIS OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
 TROUGH.  HOWEVER AS NADINE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
 NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...WESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE...AND
 AFTER 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WATER TEMPERATURES
 BELOW 20 DEG C.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 2-3
 DAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
 INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.  BY 72 HOURS...GIVEN THE EXPECTED COLD
 SSTS...NADINE IS LIKELY TO HAVE UNDERGONE THE TRANSFORMATION INTO
 A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING
 FRONTAL IN NATURE BY 96 HOURS...SO THE CYCLONE IS SHOWN AS
 EXTRATROPICAL BY THAT TIME.  BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...THE SYSTEM IS PREDICTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY...OR TO
 MERGE WITH...A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
 NORTH ATLANTIC. 
  
 NADINE IS GRADUALLY TURNING EASTWARD...AND THE MOTION IS NOW AROUND
 105/6.  FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
 FORECAST...AND THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.  A
 VIGOROUS MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR NEWFOUNDLAND IS
 FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND RESULT IN A LARGE AND STRONG
 DEEP-LAYER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES IN A FEW
 DAYS.  NADINE SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN
 THE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS
 OR SO.  AFTERWARDS...IF POST-TROPICAL NADINE HAS STILL MAINTAINED
 ITS IDENTITY...IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE AROUND THE
 NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LARGER CYCLONE UNTIL BECOMING COMPLETELY
 ABSORBED.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  02/0900Z 34.5N  38.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 34.3N  37.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  03/0600Z 34.7N  35.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  03/1800Z 35.9N  32.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  04/0600Z 38.8N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  05/0600Z 45.5N  26.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  96H  06/0600Z 49.0N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 120H  07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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