973 
 WTNT44 KNHC 011455
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  76
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
 1100 AM AST MON OCT 01 2012
  
 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT NADINE
 CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO THE EASTERN
 AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
 SATELLITE-BASED ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND THE UW-CIMSS
 ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT...MAKING
 NADINE A TROPICAL STORM...AGAIN.
  
 NADINE IS NEARING THE END OF ANOTHER LOOP AS IT MOVES TO THE
 SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 4 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS EXPECTED
 AS THE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS AHEAD OF A LARGE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
 LOW APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE TROUGH NEARS...NADINE IS
 EXPECTED TO BECOME ENTANGLED WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND BEGIN
 ACCELERATING TO THE NORTH BY DAY 3. AFTER THAT...THERE IS SOME
 DISAGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER NADINE WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE
 TROUGH...OR WILL ACCELERATE OFF TO THE EAST AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW. 
 THE FORECAST SPLITS THESE TWO SCENARIOS...AND SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF
 NADINE SLOWING DOWN BY DAY 5...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME ABSORBED
 BEFORE THAT.
  
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 23 C...AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE TROUGH...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
 ADDITIONAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY DAY 4...
 NADINE IS MERCIFULLY EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  IN
 FACT...THE HWRF MODEL INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL BE DEVOID
 OF DEEP CONVECTION BY 72 HOURS...SO NADINE COULD BECOME
 POST-TROPICAL EVEN EARLIER THAN INDICATED. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND IS VERY NEAR THE
 FSSE CONSENSUS MODEL.
  
 THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
 PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...AS NADINE MAKES ITS SECOND APPROACH TOWARD
 THE ISLANDS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/1500Z 35.8N  39.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 35.3N  38.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 34.9N  37.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  03/0000Z 34.9N  36.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  03/1200Z 35.4N  34.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  04/1200Z 40.0N  29.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  05/1200Z 47.0N  27.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 120H  06/1200Z 49.0N  28.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ZELINSKY/BROWN