343 
 WTNT44 KNHC 280240
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  62
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
 1100 PM AST THU SEP 27 2012
  
 THE ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN TONIGHT ON IR IMAGES IS THE
 BEST IT HAS BEEN IN A WEEK.  NADINE LOOKS MORE LIKE A TYPICAL
 TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND FAIR
 OUTFLOW. BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE NUMBERS ARE 3.5 ON THE
 DVORAK SCALE...INDICATING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. NADINE
 HAS MANAGED TO AVOID OR REPEL THE SHEAR AND SURVIVED THE COOL
 WATERS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
 GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE A LITTLE BIT...THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
 SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL
 WEAKENING...BUT NOT MUCH...SHOULD THEN BEGIN IN 48 HOURS AS ANOTHER
 SHORTWAVE APPROACHES NADINE AND INCREASES THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR.
 THIS FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LGEM AND THE INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS MODELS.
  
 NADINE HAS SPENT A LARGE PORTION OF ITS LIFE TRAPPED WITHIN A
 BLOCKING PATTERN. IT IS NOW SOUTH OF A RIDGE...AND IS MOVING TOWARD
 THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. SOON IT WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
 EDGE OF THE RIDGE...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE FORCED TO TURN SLOWLY
 NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE STORY DOES NOT END THERE...AND IT IS DEJA
 VU ALL OVER AGAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
 APPROACH NADINE...BUT IT WILL BYPASS THE CYCLONE...LEAVING
 NADINE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING FLOW AGAIN. CONSEQUENTLY...BY
 THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD NADINE MOST LIKELY WILL BE DRIFTING
 AIMLESSLY SOUTHWEST AND FAR FROM AZORES. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY
 CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS...AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
 ENVELOPE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...BOTH TRACK AND
 INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  28/0300Z 28.8N  33.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  28/1200Z 29.0N  34.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  29/0000Z 30.4N  35.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  29/1200Z 32.0N  36.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  30/0000Z 34.0N  36.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  01/0000Z 36.5N  37.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  02/0000Z 36.5N  37.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 120H  03/0000Z 37.0N  36.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA