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 834 
 WTNT44 KNHC 251453
 TCDAT4
  
 TROPICAL STORM NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  52
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012
  
 NADINE HAS A CLOUD FREE REGION NEAR THE CENTER IN INFRARED SATELLITE
 IMAGERY...HOWEVER THE CONVECTION IN THE SURROUNDING RING IS NOT
 VERY DEEP.  THIS YIELDS DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT STILL SEEM TO BE
 UNDERESTIMATING THE INTENSITY OF NADINE.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED
 REMAINS 40 KT...WHICH IS A BLEND OF THE MOST RECENT UW/CIMMS AMSU
 AND ADT ESTIMATES.  NADINE CONTINUES TO INGEST SOME DRY AIR EVEN
 THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE LESSENING. THE SHEAR
 IS FORECAST TO DECREASE FURTHER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS NADINE
 MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS.  THESE FACTORS FAVOR
 SOME STRENGTHENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SURGE OF DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
 TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTH IN A DAY OR TWO.  THIS IS
 LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING AND THE NHC FORECAST
 ONLY CALLS FOR A VERY GRADUAL INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE
 NEXT 2-3 DAYS.
  
 NADINE HAS TURNED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
 250/5.  THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
 HOURS AS NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES BETWEEN A DEEPENING
 TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC AND A STRONG RIDGE TO THE
 NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY
 WESTWARD IN A FEW DAYS...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD LATER IN THE
 PERIOD AS THE LARGE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD.  THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS
 BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD THROUGH 72 HOURS TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
 WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. THEREAFTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
 CONSENSUS.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL IN
 THE TRACK PREDICTION AT DAYS 4 AND 5 BECAUSE OF THE UNUSUALLY LARGE
 SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  25/1500Z 31.9N  30.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  26/0000Z 31.2N  30.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  26/1200Z 30.4N  30.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  27/0000Z 29.5N  30.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  27/1200Z 28.6N  31.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  28/1200Z 28.6N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  29/1200Z 30.0N  33.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  30/1200Z 32.0N  35.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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